2026 Housing Outlook: Research Says “More Transactions.” It Does Not Say “No Risk.”

Over the past several months, leading housing and economic research groups have released their 2026 projections. To cut through the noise, we reviewed forecasts and data from Zillow, Fannie Mae, Realtor.com, the Mortgage Bankers Association, NAHB, NAR, FHFA, and recent federal economic reports. Rather than relying on a single outlook, we focused on where these sources align and what those trends mean for the regions Exacta serves.

The conclusion is consistent across the research.

The 2026 housing market is not in a rebound cycle. It is a normalization cycle.

According to Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group, mortgage rates are expected to average near 6% in 2026, not a return to the 3–4% era. Zillow’s 2026 outlook similarly assumes rates hovering around that range, while the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) has projected mortgage rates fluctuating in the 6.0% to 6.5% band.

That rate environment matters. Even small rate movements materially change buyer qualifications.

At the same time, major forecasters broadly agree on the following 2026 national setup:

• Home price growth: Low single digits
  • Fannie Mae projects roughly +2–3%
  • Zillow projects closer to +1–2%
  • Realtor.com expects similar modest appreciation
• Existing home sales: Improving from 2025 levels but not returning to pre-2022 volume
  • Fannie Mae projects sales in the low-4 million range
  • Zillow forecasts a similar modest rebound

Based on reports, the credible takeaway is this:

2026 should bring in more transactions than 2025. It may not bring easy transactions.

Where We’re Starting: A Market That Slowed, But Didn’t Break

Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows existing home sales entering 2026 at a subdued but stabilizing pace. Median prices remained positive year-over-year, but growth cooled dramatically.

Meanwhile, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reported that national home price growth slowed to low single digits by late 2025, with some regional divisions showing flat or slightly negative performance.

The S&P Case-Shiller Index also reflected this cooling trend.

In plain terms:

Prices cooled sharply in 2025. They did not collapse.
Sales volumes were constrained. They did not disappear.

That distinction matters. We are not coming out of distress. We are coming out of stagnation.

Inventory Is Rising. Builders Are Not Flooding the Market.

Realtor.com’s 2026 forecast calls for for-sale inventory to rise in the high single digits year over year, with months of supply drifting closer to balanced levels.

At the same time, U.S. Census Bureau construction data shows housing starts and permits running steady to slightly lower year over year. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) has repeatedly emphasized ongoing constraints, including labor shortages, regulatory costs, and financing pressures.

That combination leads to a specific 2026 dynamic:

Inventory improves gradually.
Supply does not surge.

Which means price growth slows. It does not crash.

The Labor Market Is the Real Swing Factor

The Federal Reserve’s most recent economic projections suggest unemployment stabilizing in the mid-4% range with inflation trending toward the low-2% range.

As long as employment remains stable, housing demand can remain stable.

If unemployment rises materially above baseline projections, housing demand weakens faster than relief helps.

The MBA’s outlook explicitly highlights labor market conditions as the dominant macro risk to housing in 2026.

This is important for transaction professionals because:

Housing does not need a booming economy.
It needs steady jobs.

What This Means in Exacta Markets

National forecasts are useful. But closings are local.

Here is how the 2026 research translates across Exacta’s core markets: Ohio, Florida, Illinois, Maryland/DC/NoVA, and Texas.

Ohio: Cleveland, Columbus, and Surrounding Counties

Midwestern markets have shown relative resilience.

FHFA data shows the East North Central division performing better than several high-growth Sun Belt regions into late 2025. Case-Shiller data similarly shows stronger performance in markets like Chicago and Midwest metros compared to certain overheated regions.

What that means for Ohio:

• Demand remains steady.
• Inventory improves but remains constrained in many counties.
• Transactions move forward even without dramatic rate drops.

The risk in these markets is rarely speculative pricing. It is operational friction. Encroachments, outdated legal descriptions, driveway overlaps, fence disputes. In steady markets, paper-to-property mismatches cause more delays than price swings.

Florida: Orlando and Statewide Operations

Florida tells a different story.

FHFA data showed some Florida metros experiencing flat or slightly negative price momentum entering 2026. Realtor.com’s inventory projections and Zillow’s data show supply improving more rapidly in certain Florida markets compared to the Midwest.

At the same time, rising homeowners' insurance costs have become a meaningful affordability factor.

Even if rates dip, insurance and taxes can offset monthly payment relief.

That combination creates:

• More negotiation
• More scrutiny
• More sensitivity to transaction surprises

Florida closings in 2026 are less likely to fail because “the market crashed.”
They are more likely to stall because something surfaced late.

Illinois: Chicago and Surrounding Suburbs

Chicago has shown relative price stability compared to certain high-growth markets that overheated during 2020–2022.

In markets with tighter supply and mature housing stock, buyer tolerance for cosmetic flaws can remain high.

Tolerance for legal ambiguity does not.

As inventory gradually rises in 2026, buyers gain leverage. That increases diligence scrutiny, particularly in attorney-review markets.

Survey clarity becomes risk control, not just compliance.

Maryland, DC, and Northern Virginia

These are high-payment, high-scrutiny markets.

The Atlanta Fed’s Home Ownership Affordability Monitor shows affordability ratios stretched in many of these metros compared to Midwest markets.

When buyers are stretching financially, they do not tolerate surprises.

That means:

• Longer review cycles when issues appear
• Greater sensitivity to easements, encroachments, and access questions
• Less patience for revisions late in underwriting

Confidence in documentation becomes a competitive advantage.

Texas: Dallas and Houston

Texas remains volume-driven.

Census permit data shows higher per-capita building activity in parts of Texas compared to the Midwest and Northeast markets.

More construction means:

• More plat complexity
• More boundary clarification
• More coordination between the builder, lender, and title

In active markets, small delays compound quickly.

The 2026 risk is not inactivity.
It is operational bottlenecks.

The 2026 Reality for Closings

Research from Zillow, Fannie Mae, Realtor.com, MBA, NAHB, NAR, FHFA, and Freddie Mac points toward the same disciplined conclusion:

• Rates stabilize near 6%.
• Inventory rises gradually.
• Sales improve modestly.
• Prices grow slowly.
• Regional dispersion widens.

That is a market where:

More deals close.
More deals also fall apart if risk is discovered late.

Why This Matters for Transaction Professionals

In 2026:

• Buyers have more options.
• Sellers have less pricing power.
• Lenders remain documentation-focused.
• Underwriters remain conservative.

When uncertainty appears at the end of a file, it now has more power to derail the deal.

That is not fear-based commentary. It is consistent with how normalization markets behave historically.

The Strategic Takeaway for 2026

Major forecasts from Zillow, Fannie Mae, Realtor.com, MBA, and NAHB point to the same conclusion: 2026 should bring more transactions, modest price growth, and gradually rising inventory. Mortgage rates are expected to hover near 6%, not return to ultra-low territory.

This is not a boom cycle. It is a normalization cycle.

In normalization markets, execution matters more than momentum. Buyers have options. Sellers have less leverage. Lenders remain disciplined. Small issues carry more weight because transactions are no longer automatic.

The deals that close smoothly in 2026 will be those that are well-prepared.

Fewer surprises. Clear documentation. Early risk identification.

That is what keeps transactions moving in a steady but unforgiving market.